The main dilemma of Putin in the face of the new American politics, which has recently found the opportunity to act comfortably in the field they open to, with the unresponsiveness of the USA and European countries.
While world policy is getting harder, it is getting harder for states to establish their foreign policy preferences. This challenge is not only for states, non-state actors will face tough decisions.
Syria, Afghanistan, North Korea and Ukraine emerge as clashes that can confront global powers. Besides, it is seen that the USA, which intends to reopen the Iranian file, has increased the pressure on Venezuela thoroughly and has taken "determined" steps to include Mexico in the "others" class. In contrast, the European Union, Turkey, Hungary and Poland "reluctant obedience to Brussels" with countries experiencing serious problems.
Internal instability in the USA after Trump's power with populist ideas and in the European Union after Brexit and the rise of the far right are among the important uncertainties of the new period. The uncertainty of the impact of Washington's foreign policy on the fact that Trump has been pressured by American intelligence agencies in the election period with alleged possible connections with Russia raises these ambiguities. Similarly, it is unknown how Europe's global powers' policy towards Ukraine, Syria and Korea will evolve, focusing on their internal problems due to increased xenophobia and anti-EU.
The USA, whose risk of confrontation with Russia in Korea and in Korea after the last moves of the Trump administration, is more involved in the issue of Ukraine according to the development of these problems and expanding the front against Moscow and European countries more in these problems. may be in question.
At this point, it is necessary to talk about Russia's dilemma.
The main dilemma of Putin, who has recently found the opportunity to act comfortably in the field he opened with the unresponsiveness of the USA and European countries, is whether he will continue his policy of escalating tension against the USA and Europe, or whether he will accept the point where his borders come and prefer to avoid tension.
Moscow's preference for the first route would mean a long-term economic and military struggle against the US and other Western countries. In this case, the tension between Moscow and Washington will not be limited to Syria and Ukraine, and the parties will try to harm each other through Central Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and the Baltic countries. The news in the Western press about Russia's activities in Afghanistan may already indicate that this country will become one of the areas of the fight against attrition among global powers in the new period.
However, the fact that Russia is far behind the West especially in terms of economy shows that Putin's going into such a struggle with the USA and other Western countries before the presidential elections next year will be problematic. In this case, Moscow should prefer to get on well with the West and avoid competition with the USA. However, choosing this route would mean that Putin postponed his dream of making Russia one of the two superpowers in the world, as in the period of the Soviet Union, for an indefinite time. Putin, who gained the sympathy of the Russian people with the policy based on the use of military force after Yeltsin, may return to passive politics against the USA and lose his popularity.
In other words, Putin needs to make a choice between his dreams and reality, and the factor that will affect this preference most will be the policies Trump will follow.
If Trump turns to a harsh policy that shows its borders to Russia in Syria and maybe later in Ukraine, Moscow's avoidance of conflict with Washington will be a realistic attitude in terms of power balances between the two countries, but what Putin dreams of and promises to his people. Russia will mean getting away from its target